Wednesday, September 10, 2008

How much is an Obama Presidency worth to you?

For those of you (I think maybe 3 or 4 of my friends read this) who do any sort of political action or Obama-related advocacy, I think this is a useful tool.
You could also, put in your own yearly income, family's filing status, etc, and check out what an Obama presidency would be worth to you... and then donate it to Obama, I would suggest.
Not that he is in dire straits, for those of you who have been fretting because of the polls, please check out more detailed and sophisticated analysis from some people who know their numbers and how to read a poll:
Summary here of a lot of findings (I know it is on super lefty Daily Kos, but their approach to polling often  tends to be reasonable and measured)
Nate Silver at, talks about why, after the conventions, more Republicans might pick up the phone, whereas before they were embarrassed.  But this fact can bias the polls.

Also, consider this basic fact, there are far more registered democrats than republicans now (this has not always been the case).  This is something that is more certain than the polls (this is not people on the phone, but actual voter records). 

Anyways, I am still going to go out on a limb and predict Obama to get more than 300 electoral votes.  You heard it here first (ok not first, but still early). 

and you know how he is going to do it?  By being a community organizer.  And people will look back and consider the irony, that he was insulted with that at the Republican convention, and yet his attitude towards the ground game, and the get-out-the-vote machine he has built (starting with the primaries, remember he won the Texas caucuses?) will eventually win him the election.

1 comment:

Sam said...

I'm putting faith in you on this one. Are you taking any trips to swing states?